Civil war in Iraq could expand to Kurdish North with resulting invasion by Turkey
For years, the northern Kurdish area of Iraq has experienced relative calm and even prosperity while the rest of Iraq has been burning. Years of protection from US enforced no-fly zones helped create an infrastructure which seemed immune to the sectarian strife and civil war consuming the rest of Iraq following the US invasion.
All of that appears to be unraveling as Turkey calls for cross border operations against the kurds in response to a provocative interview that Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Masud Barzani gave to al-Arabiya television basically threatening Turkey over Kirkuk.
The focal point is the Iraqi city of Kirkuk.
According to the International Crisis Group:
With every day and each exploding bomb that kills schoolchildren or shoppers, hopes for peaceful resolution of the Kirkuk question recede. The approach favoured by the Kurds, constitution-based steps culminating in a referendum by year’s end, is bitterly opposed by Kirkuk’s other principal communities – Arabs and Turkomans – who see it as a rigged process with predetermined outcome. Their preference, to keep Kirkuk under federal government control, is rejected by the Kurds. With all sides dug in and the Kurds believing Kirkuk is a lost heirloom they are about to regain, the debate should move off outcomes to focus on a fair and acceptable process. For the Kurds, that means postponing the referendum, implementing confidence-building measures and seeking a new mechanism prioritising consensus. The U.S. needs to recognise the risk of an explosion in Kirkuk and press the Kurds, the Baghdad government and Turkey alike to adjust policies and facilitate a peaceful settlement.